India-Pakistan Missile Race Intensifies with China in Focus

India Agni-V test and Pakistan new Rocket Force highlight South Asia’s missile race, with China emerging as India’s key strategic target.

South Asia’s missile competition is once again in the spotlight, with both India and Pakistan unveiling new advancements. Yet analysts stress that this arms race is no longer just about their long-standing rivalry—it increasingly involves China and the shifting global power balance.

India’s Agni-V Missile Test: More Than a Message to Pakistan

While Pakistan remains India’s immediate rival, defense experts believe the timing of this test sends a signal to Beijing, particularly ahead of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to China for the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit. Despite ongoing efforts at thawing relations, India continues to perceive China as its primary security challenge.

Pakistan Responds with Rocket Force Command

Just a week before India’s Agni-V test, Pakistan announced the creation of its Army Rocket Force Command (ARFC). This move aims to strengthen Islamabad’s defensive posture after vulnerabilities were exposed in previous skirmishes with India. Pakistan has also been expanding its missile capabilities, recently showcasing the Fatah-4 cruise missile with a 750km range and dual nuclear-conventional warhead capacity.

However, Pakistan’s longest operational ballistic missile, the Shaheen-III, has a range of 2,750km—well short of India’s Agni-V. Although Pakistan possesses the Ababeel, a medium-range missile with MIRV (multiple warhead) capability, it remains the shortest-ranged system of its kind among nuclear powers.

India’s Expanding Arsenal: Beyond the Subcontinent

India’s missile ambitions stretch far beyond South Asia. Work is underway on the Agni-VI, which could exceed 10,000km in range and feature advanced MIRV technology. Moreover, India is enhancing its submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) program, allowing its nuclear-powered submarines (SSBNs) to carry hundreds of warheads in the coming decade. This capacity gives New Delhi a secure second-strike capability, strengthening its deterrence posture against China.

By contrast, Pakistan lacks nuclear submarines and intercontinental missile reach, keeping its strategy regionally focused. Analysts argue that this demonstrates India’s bid to project itself as a global power, while Pakistan’s development remains primarily India-specific.

Western Reactions: A Double Standard?

Interestingly, Washington and its allies view India’s growing arsenal as stabilizing within the broader Asia-Pacific security framework, encouraging New Delhi’s role as a “net security provider.” The 2008 Nuclear Suppliers Group waiver further elevated India’s standing, allowing it to engage in international nuclear trade despite not signing the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT).

Pakistan, however, faces skepticism. U.S. officials have previously described Islamabad’s missile program as an “emerging threat,” particularly if it extends its range to target Israel, Europe, or even the United States. This reflects a long-standing distrust rooted in the country’s nuclear history and post-9/11 geopolitics.

Strategic Outlook: The China Factor

While India and Pakistan continue to compete, the larger picture reveals a triangular dynamic. India’s long-range missile development is primarily aimed at countering China, whose economic hubs lie on its east coast. Meanwhile, Pakistan seeks parity with India while quietly building options that could extend beyond South Asia.

The risk is that this competition may fuel an unofficial arms race, complicating already fragile regional security. As India deepens ties with Western powers and Pakistan looks for new partners, the South Asian missile rivalry is becoming entangled with broader great-power rivalries.

My Analysis

India’s missile advancements reflect more than defense—they highlight New Delhi’s ambition to be recognized as a global power with credible nuclear deterrence. For Pakistan, the priority remains regional balance, but as it diversifies its arsenal, it risks triggering further concerns from Washington and other Western capitals.

Looking ahead, the real contest may not be India versus Pakistan alone. Instead, it will be shaped by India-China competition, U.S. strategic calculations, and Pakistan’s search for relevance in an evolving world order.