US presidential election Who is ahead in the latest opinion polls, Kamala or Trump?

The US presidential election is just one day away. The country’s voters will vote in the presidential election tomorrow, except for Monday. This election was also supposed to be a repeat of the 2020 elections. But last July, the current US President Joe Biden withdrew from the race to be the candidate of the Democratic Party. He supported Vice President Kamala Harris. Through this, Kamala became the candidate of the Democrats. Now the big question is, is Kamala Harris going to be the first woman president of the United States, or will Donald Trump be the president of the United States for the second time?

Public opinion polls are regularly conducted to determine which of the candidates is more likely to win the US presidential election. In the latest opinion polls, it was discussed whether Kamala or Trump is ahead.

Who is ahead nationally in polls?
National polls show that Kamala is slightly ahead of Trump on average. Kamala Harris has been ahead of Trump since becoming the Democratic nominee in July. According to an average of the national opinion polls, the support for Kamala Harris is 48 percent as of Sunday. And Trump’s support is 47 percent.

Support for Kamala Harris was high in the first weeks of the campaign after becoming the Democratic nominee. At the end of August, Orange was ahead of Trump by nearly four points.

Since then, Kamala Harris has retained the former position in September and early October. However, in the last few weeks, it has been seen that the gap between Trump and Kamala has narrowed in the polls.

National polls are very important in determining how popular a presidential candidate is across the country. But national surveys are not the best way to predict election results. This is because the President of the United States is elected through Electoral College votes. In this system, separate Electoral College votes are allocated to each state based on population. There are 538 Electoral College votes in the presidential election. 270 of these are required to win. The candidate who gets the most votes in a state gets all the Electoral College votes.

Who is ahead in swing states?
There are 50 states in the United States. Past elections have shown that most states vote for a particular party candidate. Candidates of certain parties win in these states. Because of this, states that do not have a history of voting for a particular party become important in determining the outcome of the vote. There are seven such kingdoms, which are called ‘oscillating kingdoms’.

The seven swing states are Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. The latest polls of voters in swing states show that the margin between Trump and Orange in these states is so narrow that it is difficult to say which candidate is ahead. As a result, it is not possible to predict that any candidate has a heavy weight.

Since Harris ran, polls have shown swings in support for the two candidates in swing states. Since early August, Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina have seen several swings in support between the two candidates. That is, sometimes one was ahead, sometimes the other. But at the moment, Donald Trump is ahead in these states.

US elections by the numbers
Kamala Harris leads Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin in three other swing states in early August polls. However, his popularity has also fluctuated in the survey. In these states, Kamala was ahead of Trump sometimes by two points, sometimes by three points. But now the gap has narrowed further. At the moment, Trump is ahead in Pennsylvania by a small margin.

All three states were once Democratic strongholds. But in 2016 everything turned upside down. Trump snatched victory from Democrats in three states in that election eight years ago. He was elected president of the service. However, in the 2020 election, the Democratic candidate Biden won these states. It remains to be seen whether Kamala will be able to retain the victory this time.